The Air Force Weather Agency is currently seeking qualified sources to conduct research in Superensemble Forecasting. The objective of this effort is to determine whether using high-resolution superensemble techniques will result in more accurate forecasting. The research would involve: a)Improving mesoscale modeling of precipitation forecasts. b)Demonstrating the strength of mesoscale superensemble forecasts through incorporation of research and operational mesoscale models. c) Examining the phase and amplitude of the diurnal change in warm season precipitation. d)Initializing the member models with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data and TRMM algorithm. e)Determining the mesoscale precipitation forecasts predictability limits. f)Assessing the performance of precipitation forecasts using a variety of skill scores. g)Testing the sensitivities of superensemble forecast to potential optimizations. Superensemble Forecasting - Definition of a Qualified Source. To be considered a qualified source, the following information must be provided. If this information is not provided, the source will not be considered for this project. The source must provide a qualification package of past work in the subject weather area. Specifically past experience must be in the weather area devoted to extending the forecast past the traditional 24-hour barrier by applying advanced superensemble techniques. Previous research must document work in the application of superensemble techniques to higher resolution models. Additionally, research that is focused on applying superensemble techniques for precipitation forecast guidance from real time multi-mode and multi-analysis superensemble forecasts at a global model resolution is required. The source must have access to a research facility to accomplish this project. The intent of this project is to determine the skill and predictability of a high-resolution superensemble forecast out to 72 hours. The goal of this project is to generate more accurate forecasts pinpointing exact locations of strong precipitation systems. An Acquisition Ombudsman, Colonel Joseph P. Maryeski, Director, Commander's Staff, has been appointed to hear concerns from offerors or potential offerors during proposal development. You should only contact the Ombudsman with issues or problems you cannot satisfactorily resolve with the program manager and/or contracting officer. The Ombudsman role is to hear concerns, issues, and recommendations and communicate these to the appropriate government personnel. The Ombudsman will maintain strict confidentiality if desired. The Ombudsman does not evaluate proposals or participate in source selection. You can contact the Ombudsman at (781) 377-5106.

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