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The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Region Seven (7), Alaska, intends to award a sole source, firm-fixed price purchase to West, Inc. The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Region Seven (7), Alaska requires the services of analysis of capture-recapture data for polar bears. The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Region Seven (7) posted a special notice (70181AQ095) on Federal Business Opprotunity (FBO) seeking sources for this procurement August 2, 2010 through August 13, 2010. There were no responces received as a result of the posting. Background: The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service is currently working with user groups to determine the location of the boundary between the southern Beaufort Sea and northern Beaufort Sea polar bear populations. The current population boundary lies at approximately 125W longitude. To better reflect polar bear movements and patterns of native subsistence harvest in this region, user groups have requested an analysis to determine the effects of moving the boundary 133W. Specifically, how would this boundary shift affect the relative abundance of the populations. To address this question, USFWS and collaborators will re-analyze capture-recapture data from the southern Beaufort and northern Beaufort polar bear populations. Goal/Objective: Determine the effects on relative abundance of the southern Beaufort Sea and northern Beaufort Sea polar bear populations associated with moving the population boundary from 125W to 133W. Tasks: Prepare historic capture-recapture data for analysis. Separate capture histories and associated covariates according to the new proposed boundary. Re-perform complete analyses per Regehr et al. (2009) and Stirling et al. (2007), using similar ecological hypotheses and similar suites of models, but with the new datasets. Complete analyses using Cormack-Jolly-Seber type models in the programming language R. Use multimodel inference to evaluate hypotheses, select preferred models, and derive model-averaged parameter estimates. Interpret new estimates of abundance and vital rates in relation to previously published estimates. Produce a report documenting the analysis, for submittal to Department of the Interior (DOI) review processes. This analysis will involve close collaboration with DOI scientists. However, most data analysis, interpretation, and write-up will be the responsibility of the contracted party.

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