The National Institutes of Health (NIH), John E. Fogarty International Center (FIC), intends to procure the services of Origem Consultoria Ceintifica, Rua Nagib Izar 314, 03337-070 Sao Paulo (SP) Brazil. Origem will work with FIC on analysis of diarrhea and influenza data obtained at the Multinational Influenza Seasonality of Mortality Study (MISMS) meetings from American and Asia countries particularly Thailand, Filipinas, Brazil and Mexico. Implement user-friendly interfaces to inform end users about the causality of diarrhea disease. These services are set within the framework of an on-going Multinational Influenza Seasonality of Mortality Study (MISMS) study conducted by a team of epidemiologist from the FIC and National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Origem has been involved in the study of spatio-temporal patterns of influenza and diarrhea with the FIC previously, resulting in the publication and submission of peer-reviewed articles and conferences abstract. Origem has been developing analytical tools for the Matlab platform that proved to be useful in several of the studies currently taking place and in fact to analyze data brought from different countries of the MISMS meetings. The period of performance will be for one full calendar year. In addition to the above Origem will also provide the specific tasks listed: SPECIFIC TASK: INFLUENZA Origem will continue to analyze the datasets obtained at the Multinational Influenza Seasonality of Mortality Study (MISMS) meetings from American and Asian countries, particularly Thailand, Filipinas, Brazil and Mexico. Like in the Brazilian case these analyses will be based upon mortality data, virus surveillance date and vaccination coverage data as it relates to MISMS. The description of such patterns will be performed in the highest possible resolution allowed by the datasets, both spatially and temporally. The particularities of the influenza seasonal patterns in each geographic region will be described - both in their stationary parameters (as captured by spectral estimation, which is mathematically related to Fourier decomposition analysis, whereby the variability of the time-series is described as a distribution of uncorrelated components of cycles) and in their non-stationary aspects - as captured through the use of Wavelet analysis. The analyses of these time series within a geographic perspective shall also enable the investigation of transmission patterns as a function of demographic and spatial factors. For instance, phase variables (reflecting the period of occurrence of cyclic events as captured by the Fourier decomposition in the stationary analysis and phase differences in wavelet analysis. There are expected to provide important insights into the progress of an epidemic throughout a geographic and demographic landscape at the continental scale used in the present study. Origem will also investigate potential correlations between seasonal climate variations and mortality records based upon weekly Pneumonia and Influenza mortality reports. Such investigations will be conducted by clustering the similar eco-climatic regions of each country and then exploring the climatic conditions that better explain both temporally and in amplitude their epidemiological patterns. Monthly climatic climatologies for the whole period and for each region will be obtained from the database originated by the interpolation of data from meteorological stations. SPECIFIC TASK: DIARRHEA DISEASES Origem will continue the venue of exploring putative waves of diarrheic diseases in data-sets mainly in tropical regions. The statistical techniques employed in past research allowed with the support of expertise knowledge and bibliographic research, to distinguish the predominant bacterial and parasitic temporal profile from the predominant viral (mainly rotavirus) profile. Latin-American, African and Asian data-sets should be explored and compared to cross-validate the findings. These research studies will generate co-authored scientific literature to be published in peer reviewed journals. Origem Consultoria Cientifica is a scientific consultancy company founded by researchers graduated at Oxford University (United Kingdom), who have a broad experience in the fields of epidemiology, geo-spatial data-analyses, statistics and software design. Origem SC has successfully conducted scientific research with Oxford University on the ecological aspects related to the evolution of certain viruses transmitted by mosquitoes, as well as created risk maps to predict the future spatial distribution of these viruses. These skills were also used to study the seasonality of Campylobacter infections as determined by environmental driving forces, in project collaboration with Oxford and Cardiff (Wales) Universities. Origem has been involved in the study of spatio-temporal patterns of influenza and diarrhea before which has resulted in the publication and submission of peer-reviewed articles in influential journal in the area and conferences abstracts. Hence Origem is uniquely qualified for elucidating patterns of influenza over time and for implementing the user-friendly interface to inform end users about the causality of diarrhea disease and to continue with performing the specifics tasks above as part of the on-going MISMS. Interested vendors may identify in writing their interest with a capability statement to the Contracting Office prior to the closing date of this notice. The capability statement and any other information furnished must be in writing and must contain material in sufficient details to allow NIDDK to determine if the party can meet all of the foregoing requirements. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals, however; all responses received, before the closing date, of this announcement will be considered by the Government. A determination by the Government not to compete this proposed acquisition is based upon responses to this notice and is solely within the discretion of the Government. It is anticipated that the Request for Quotation (RFQ) NIHDK2008050-A will be available fifteen (15) days after the publication date of this synopsis. Receipt of quotations will be due ten (10) days after the release of the RFQ. If you have any questions regarding this announcement, please contact Tina Robinson via email. All questions must be in writing and may be emailed to Tina Robinson @ [email protected] or faxed (301) 480-1710. It is the vendor’s responsibility to call 301-402-8778 and verify that questions were received. PLEASE NOTE: In order to receive an award from the NIDDK, contractors must be registered and have valid certification in the Central Contractor Registration (CCR) www.ccr.gov.

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