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GovWorks on behalf on the Center for Army Analysis intends on awarding a sole source contract to The Dupuy Institute (TDI) for the below listed requirement. CAA is acquiring services as a follow on to a previous study to produce an estimate of the possible intensity and duration of a modern guerilla war. Intensity will be measured in terms of "blue side" (intervening forces) losses. As such, it will serve to provide a casualty estimate for such a war. Since this estimate will also address duration of the conflict, this effort may serve as a basis for doing cost estimation. This project will also attempt to address projected force sizes for such a war. The focus of the research is to examine casualties from various guerilla conflicts in the 20th century, including but not limited to UK in Palestine, Polisario Rebellion, Vietnam in Cambodia, Tamil Insurgency in Sri Lanka, The First Intifada, Somalia, The Second Intifada, Indonesia in Timor, Soviet Intervention in Hungary, First Chechen War, Second Chechen War, Ukrainian Independence Movement, Tanzania in Uganda, Communist China in Tibet, US Invasion of Panama, US Invasion of Grenada, Lebanon. The award will have four tasks and a final report. The focus of the research is to examine casualties from various guerilla conflicts in the 20th century. TASK 1, Conduct a survey of strengths, losses, and duration of a number of guerilla wars in the past. TASK 2, Collect statistical data about force strengths and losses, assembled on a monthly or more detailed basis. Determine the patterns of losses in the various wars examined, including the degree of variation in casualties from month to month. TASK 3, Determine if casualties tend to peak at certain points during the course of the operations; and present data in a historical analysis in a form useful for assessments of current or future operations. TASK 4, Assemble basic narratives of each of the guerilla wars in an attempt to identify those major events or turning points in each of the wars that resulted in a downturn or upturn in the casualty patterns. In combination with the initial study, this project will provide additional insight to the Army leadership and to the analytical community casualty estimation in guerilla conflicts that will be of value to the Army as it transforms. TDI will provide a final report at the end of this effort. It will consist of seven major sections: Introduction and background, General Description of various guerilla conflicts, Statistical data and historical analysis of casualties in guerilla conflicts, Detailed description of casualties in guerilla conflicts, Examination of wars of liberation vice wars of conquest/regime change, and Conclusions. TDI is a Non-Profit institution and the only known provider of scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The use of TDI in a sole source contract is in accordance with FAR 6.302-1. TDI has been chosen because of previous efforts that have been completed by TDI, their expertise in the field, and their availability to complete the project in the short time period necessary for the analysis project. The anticipated award date is May 02, 2005 and the total project length is estimated at 273, days. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. Any questions regarding this effort should be directed to Alan Rumney at (703) 787-1329, or by email at [email protected].

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