The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) intends to issue a sole source, firm fixed price purchase order to Kid Risk, Inc., 2 Seaport Lane, 11th Floor, Boston, MA 02210, for the following tasks to be performed seven (7) months from date of award: 1. Obtain and synthesize the existing data related to characterization of subgroups required to accurately model national disease transmission dynamics, and focus on identifying specific model inputs for Northern India and Northern Nigeria. 2. Characterize the dynamic disease model parameters quantitatively by vaccine type and serotype, which is required to support questions related to optimization of different vaccine tools (e.g. monovalent and bivalent OPV and IPV). 3. Develop a framework and comprehensive draft review that outlines the various polio immunity states that can be used to quantitatively characterize disease transmission dynamics and to help organize information for an expert review of the associated evidence. This task will consider literature review of issues related to priming, waning, and context related to modes of viral transmission, which represent concepts that are not covered in the PRC-funded effort and the existing differential equation base (DEB). The task will focus on summarizing the available data in the context of qualification of the essential population immunity states required to model national poliovirus transmission dynamics (i.e. it will go beyond literature reviews that do not provide the overall structural context required for modeling population disease dynamics) and it will identify key data gaps that limit quantification. 4. Use the framework to summarize what is known and unknown about polio disease transmission dynamics and population immunity by each virus type (i.e. serotype and live or inactivated form), provide a rigorous grading of the evidence, and present these for expert review at a workshop that CDC will host. As part of this task, consider existing strategies for "grading" and evaluating evidence and the value of performing such "grading" in the context of this review. 5. Use the information obtained from the expert review to develop the model inputs and uncertainty distributions for the second generation of the DEB model and to specifically develop models for India and Nigeria that will be needed to support efforts to address key pre-eradication policy questions relevant to those countries. This procurement will be processed under the authority of FAR 6.302-1. Only one responsible source will satisfy the Agency's requirements because this is the only service that can meet the requirements. No solicitation is being issued. This notice of intent is not a request for competitive quotes/proposals, however, all responsible sources may submit a capability statement which, if received by the response date, shall be considered by the Agency. A determination by the Government not to open the requirement to competition based upon the responses to this notice is solely within discretion of the Government. For contractual questions, contact Tiffney Griner-Esslinger @ [email protected].

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